BÀI VIẾT ĐƯỢC XUẤT BẢN TRONG KỶ YẾU HỘI NGHỊ KHOA HỌC KỸ THUẬT QUỐC TẾ LẦN THỨ 34 “HỆ THỐNG AN NINH -2025” DO HỌC VIỆN PHÒNG CHÁY CHỮA CHÁY QUỐC GIA THUỘC BỘ TÌNH TRẠNG KHẨN CẤP NGA TỔ CHỨC

Nguyen Van Tuan (Vietnam)
(Vietnam National University – School of Business and Management;
tuan.ketavina.thuongmai@gmail.com)
FIRE RISK PREDICTION AND MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS
FOR WAREHOUSES AND INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES IN HANOI
IN THE CONTEXT OF NON-TRADITIONAL SECURITY
This article analyzes fire risks at warehouses and industrial facilities in Hanoi
from a non-traditional safety perspective. Expected fire risk trends for the period 2025-2030
are identified, reflecting rapid industrial growth, climate conditions, and the city’s limited safety
infrastructure. International experience is analyzed, and management solutions tailored
to Hanoi’s conditions are proposed.
Keywords: fire risk, warehouses and industrial facilities, non-traditional safety,
risk management, Hanoi.
Нгуен Ван Туан (Вьетнам)
ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ПОЖАРНЫХ РИСКОВ И УПРАВЛЕНЧЕСКИЕ
РЕШЕНИЯ ДЛЯ СКЛАДОВ И ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕННЫХ ОБЪЕКТОВ
В ХАНОЕ В КОНТЕКСТЕ НЕТРАДИЦИОННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ
В работе анализируются пожарные риски на складах и производственных объектах Ханоя с позиции нетрадиционной безопасности. Определены ожидаемые тенденции
развития пожарных рисков на период 2025-2030 годов, связанные с быстрым ростом промышленности, климатическими условиями и ограниченной городской инфраструктурой
безопасности. Проанализирован международный опыт и предложены управленческие
решения, адаптированные к условиям Ханоя.
Ключевые слова: пожарный риск, склады и производственные объекты, нетрадиционная безопасность, управление рисками, Ханой.
1. Introduction
Hanoi has experienced a steady increase in fires involving warehouses
and factories, particularly in areas where industrial facilities are located near
dense residential zones. These incidents have caused significant human and economic losses, disrupted local supply chains and placed pressure on emergency
response forces [1]. In a rapidly urbanizing and industrializing environment, fire
risks are no longer confined to technical failures alone but interact with broader
social, environmental and economic vulnerabilities.
This wider perspective aligns with the concept of non-traditional security,
in which fire incidents are viewed as threats that undermine human well-being,
economic stability and community resilience. From this standpoint, improving
fire safety requires not only compliance with technical regulations but also effective governance mechanisms capable of addressing complex risk factors [2].
However, existing research and policy discussions in Vietnam rarely approach
industrial fire risks through this multidimensional security lens.

The scarcity of integrated risk assessments makes it difficult for local
authorities and enterprises to anticipate emerging hazards or design prevention
strategies suited to Hanoi’s evolving industrial landscape. To address this gap,
this paper examines fire risks in warehouses and factories under the non-traditional security framework, identifies major governance challenges and proposes
structured solutions adapted to Hanoi’s conditions. By adopting this approach,
the study aims to contribute a more comprehensive and forward-looking perspective to fire risk management in the capital.
2. Theoretical and analytical framework
2.1. Non-traditional security perspective
Non-traditional security provides a useful lens for analyzing fire risks
in industrial zones, as it highlights how threats arise not only from technical failures but also from social behavior, institutional capacity, environmental conditions and economic pressures. Under this approach, large-scale fires are considered security challenges that destabilize livelihoods, disrupt production networks,
generate environmental harm and weaken public trust in local governance. For
Hanoi, where industrial growth intersects with dense urbanization, applying this
perspective allows for a more comprehensive understanding of systemic vulnerabilities across the entire chain of prevention, response and recovery.
2.2. Risk governance model
Risk governance emphasizes coordinated actions between the state, enterprises and communities. In this paper, the governance framework integrates four
core dimensions: legal regulations, organizational structure, technical capacity
and social engagement [3]. These dimensions collectively determine the effectiveness of prevention, inspection, incident mitigation and post-incident recovery.
To support analysis, the paper employs a simplified version
of the MNS = 3S – 3C approach. The three “S” components represent sources
of risk (structure, system, society), while the three “C” components reflect governance capacity (control, coordination, communication). Although presented
briefly here, the model helps connect observed vulnerabilities with corresponding
governance functions.
2.3. Key risk factors
Fire risks in warehouses and factories in Hanoi are influenced by a combination of legal, organizational, technical and social factors [3].
From a legal standpoint, overlapping or outdated standards may limit the
enforcement of safety responsibilities for facility owners and operators. Organizational factors include insufficient inspection frequency, gaps in coordination
among authorities and limited preparedness by enterprises. Technical risks arise
from aging infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, combustible materials
and limited early-warning technologies. Social risks relate to worker behavior,
informal labor practices, low fire-safety awareness and the close proximity
of industrial sites to residential areas.

Together, these elements form a complex risk landscape that requires integrated and forward-looking governance solutions [3].
3. Current fire risks and forecasting trends in Hanoi
3.1. Current fire risk assessment
Fire risks in warehouses and factories in Hanoi are shaped by intertwined
economic, human, environmental and social vulnerabilities [1].
From an economic perspective, fires can disrupt supply chains, halt production and cause considerable financial losses for enterprises located in both industrial zones and mixed-use urban areas. Many businesses operate with limited contingency resources, making them highly sensitive to disruptions [1].
Human-related risks stem from inadequate safety awareness, limited training and unsafe work practices. A significant share of warehouse and factory workers are temporary or informal laborers who may not receive sufficient instruction
on fire prevention or emergency response procedures. This increases the likelihood of human error during high-risk operations such as welding, chemical handling or equipment maintenance.
Environmental risks are associated with extreme heat, seasonal drought
and the presence of flammable materials. Poor ventilation, aging electrical systems and inadequate management of hazardous substances can accelerate fire
spread and intensify its consequences. In densely built industrial clusters,
the proximity of facilities may contribute to escalation from isolated incidents
to large-scale events.
Social risks emerge from the close integration of industrial facilities
with surrounding residential communities. Encroachment, informal construction
and insufficient buffer zones create conditions in which a fire at an enterprise may
quickly affect nearby households. Moreover, limited community awareness and
uneven cooperation with authorities can impede early detection and timely evacuation [1].
3.2. Forecasting risk trends for the period 2025–2030
Looking ahead to 2025–2030, several trends indicate that fire risks
in Hanoi’s warehouses and factories may intensify if not addressed with coordinated governance measures. Rapid industrial expansion, particularly the growth
of logistics hubs and small production facilities within urban districts, will increase the density of high-risk structures. Climate change is expected to raise temperatures and prolong dry periods, making electrical overloads and heat-related
ignition sources more likely.
Urban development patterns also suggest that mixed-use areas, where factories, warehouses and residences coexist in close proximity, will continue to expand. Such arrangements heighten the potential for large-scale damage and

complicate emergency response operations. At the same time, digital transformation in safety management remains uneven. Many enterprises lack early-warning systems, automated monitoring tools or standardized fire risk assessments.
This creates gaps that may widen as technological demands grow.
These trends underscore the need for a forward-looking approach that integrates legal reforms, institutional strengthening and technological upgrading
to reduce systemic vulnerabilities and enhance overall fire resilience [3].
4. International experience and lessons for Hanoi
4.1. International reference models
Several countries have developed risk governance systems that offer useful
insights for improving fire safety in Hanoi’s warehouses and factories.
The European Union applies a risk-based regulatory framework under
the Seveso III Directive, which requires industrial facilities to identify major hazards, map risk zones and disclose essential safety information to authorities
and the public. The system emphasizes transparency and joint responsibility between enterprises and regulators, enabling early detection of critical weaknesses
and timely corrective actions [4].
In the United Kingdom, fire safety management is grounded in the principle
of the Responsible Person, who must conduct Fire Risk Assessments, maintain
protection systems and ensure that workers understand emergency procedures.
The UK model highlights accountability and continuous improvement, reducing
reliance on inspections alone and encouraging self-regulation supported by periodic verification [5].
Singapore adopts a technology-oriented approach with risk-based licensing, digital inspection tools and strict enforcement mechanisms for industrial operators. Automated monitoring systems, integrated databases and building-level
digital records enable authorities to detect violations quickly, analyze emerging
patterns and streamline fire safety management across industrial estates.
4.2. Lessons for Hanoi
These international examples suggest several directions relevant to Hanoi.
First, risk transparency should be strengthened by requiring enterprises
to conduct standardized risk assessments and share critical information with regulators and local communities. Second, clearly defined responsibility for fire
safety management can enhance accountability, especially in small and mediumsized facilities. Third, expanding the use of digital tools such as early-warning
systems, inspection platforms and centralized databases can help authorities monitor compliance more effectively. Finally, coordinated engagement between
industrial operators, residents and local government can strengthen resilience
in mixed-use urban environments.
These lessons provide a foundation for designing governance solutions
tailored to the specific context and capacity of Hanoi.
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5. Governance solutions for Hanoi under the non-traditional security framework
5.1. Legal and policy solutions
Strengthening the legal basis for fire safety in warehouses and factories
is essential for reducing systemic risks. Regulations should clearly define the responsibilities of facility owners and operators, standardize fire risk assessment
procedures and require the disclosure of essential safety information. Updating
technical standards in line with modern industrial practices and clarifying enforcement mechanisms can help reduce inconsistencies in compliance [2]. Policy
frameworks should also encourage enterprises to adopt digital safety tools
and invest in preventive measures rather than relying solely on post-incident
responses.
5.2. Organizational and managerial solutions
Effective risk governance requires coordinated institutional arrangements.
Local authorities should enhance inspection frequency, improve inter-agency
communication and ensure timely follow-up of identified violations. Enterprises
need to establish internal fire safety teams capable of conducting routine inspections and maintaining safety equipment. Training programs for managers
and workers should be standardized and regularly updated. Furthermore, emergency plans must be realistic, scenario-based and practiced through drills involving both employees and nearby residents.
5.3. Technology and infrastructure solutions
Upgrading safety infrastructure and adopting advanced technologies can
significantly improve early detection and incident mitigation. Installing automated fire detection systems, thermal sensors and surveillance cameras in warehouses and factories can enhance monitoring capacity. Developing digital risk
maps and integrating facilities into a centralized data platform will enable authorities to track risk levels and identify emerging hotspots. Improving access roads,
water supply points and firefighting equipment in industrial zones is also critical
for supporting rapid response efforts.
5.4. Community and social engagement
Community participation is a vital component within the non-traditional
security approach. Enhancing fire safety awareness among workers, residents
and local businesses can reduce risky behaviors and improve early detection. Collaboration between enterprises and community-based fire safety groups can facilitate information sharing and joint preparedness efforts. Reporting systems for
near-miss incidents should be promoted to help identify early warning signs and
prevent escalation. Strengthening trust and cooperation between communities
and authorities will contribute to a more resilient urban safety environment.

5.5. Integrating 3S – 3C into governance practice
The simplified 3S – 3C model can help link identified vulnerabilities
to targeted governance functions. Structural, system-related and social risks (3S)
require corresponding measures in control, coordination and communication
(3C). This means enhancing regulatory control for structural risks, improving institutional coordination for system-related issues and prioritizing communitybased communication for social risks. Integrating this model into planning
and decision-making can support a more holistic and adaptive governance approach [3].
6. Conclusion
Fire risks in warehouses and factories in Hanoi present a complex
and evolving challenge that extends beyond traditional technical concerns. When
examined through the lens of non-traditional security, these risks reveal multidimensional impacts on human safety, economic stability, environmental protection
and social resilience. The assessment conducted in this paper shows that current
vulnerabilities stem from gaps in legal enforcement, organizational coordination,
infrastructure conditions and community awareness.
International experience demonstrates that risk transparency, clearly assigned responsibility, technological integration and community-oriented approaches are central to effective fire safety governance. For Hanoi, adopting these
principles requires reforms in regulatory frameworks, improved inspection systems, investment in modern monitoring technologies and stronger engagement
between enterprises, local authorities and surrounding communities.
The proposed governance solutions, supported by the simplified 3S – 3C
model, provide a foundation for reducing systemic vulnerabilities and improving
long-term preparedness. By strengthening risk governance at both institutional
and community levels, Hanoi can enhance the resilience of its industrial zones
and reduce the likelihood and impact of future fire incidents.
References
1. Hanoi Police Department – PC07. (2020–2025). Annual Fire Prevention and Fighting
Reports and Thematic Reports on Industrial Fire Safety. Hanoi.
2. National Assembly of Vietnam. (2024). Law on Fire Prevention, Fighting, and Rescue. Hanoi.
3. International Organization for Standardization (ISO). (2018). ISO 31000:2018 – Risk
Management: Guidelines. Geneva.
4. European Parliament and Council of the European Union. (2012). Directive
2012/18/EU (Seveso III) on the Control of Major-Accident Hazards Involving Dangerous Substances.
5. Government of the United Kingdom. (2005). Regulatory Reform (Fire Safety) Order
2005. London.